The Dark Horse of the Week (DHW) is the player outside of the Top 8 seeds who is forecast to be most likely to win her tournament. DHW uses a blend of the Match Stats-based (MAPS) and ELO-based forecasting systems described here.
Dark Horse of the Week
Oh so close with the last DHW, as Iga Swiatek made the final in Lugano. The Dark Horse of the Week for this week was Garbine Muguruza at Stuttgart, but then she pulled out. That leaves us with Timea Babos at Istanbul, with a 6.8% chance. That’s pretty extraordinary, because she popped into the draw as a lucky loser, but retired from her second round qualifying match.
Kristina Mladenovic at Istanbul, with a 6.6% chance.
Daria Kasatkina at Stuttgart, 5.7% chance. She was at the bottom of this list before Muguruza’s and Halep’s withdrawals.
Svetlana Kuznetsova at Istanbul, 5.4% chance
Elise Mertens at Stuttgart, 4.5% chance
Ashley Kratzer at Anning, 4.2% chance
Marketa Vondrousova at Istanbul, 4.0% chance. I would have expected this to be higher, but it’s clay and she’s close to Kuznetsova in the draw.
Barbora Strycova at Istanbul, 4.0% chance
Jana Cepelova at Anning, 3.4% chance
Fang Yin Xun at Anning, 2.8% chance
Sorana Cirstea at Anning, 2.7% chance
Pauline Parmentier at Anning, 2.7% chance
Kaylah “Nanny” McPhee at Anning, 2.5% chance
Chihiro Muramatsu at Anning, 2.5% chance
***I provide this page for fun, and as an academic exercise in tennis analytics. I neither prepare the DHW nor the honorable mentions for purposes of wagering, and the term “dark horse” does not suggest that I have evaluated my forecast in light of any betting odds.